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The starting point of shipping is policy

  In terms of dry bulk goods, in the near future, domestic infrastructure demand has been released, ore demand has improved month on month, Capesize market freight rates continue to rise, and they will remain high in the fourth quarter. In terms of containers, since September, the continuous rise of CCFI has ended, and before the Christmas peak season, the callback pressure has increased. We believe that the whole shipping sector is still at the bottom of history, but in terms of rhythm, dry bulk trading opportunities are stronger, and containers face the risk of re release of transport capacity.
Fierce competition for container ships and global capacity competition
The battle of container ships began in Maersk. Maersk has ordered 20 large ships with a cost of about US $190 million each. In June 2013, the first 18000 TEU large ship was put into production, which caused a wave of super ship competition. China shipping is the second shipping company to build 18000 TEU ships. Although the container shipping market is still sluggish, China Shipping Group still orders 5 18000 TEU ships. Even COSCO, which has the biggest risk of delisting, is planning a big ship. We believe that the big ship dispute will further lengthen the container shipping cycle that should have ended, and a new round of transportation capacity dispute will start again.
Better policy environment than better economic situation
The traditional opportunity of shipping sector comes from the rebound of BDI brought by the improvement of economic situation. First, Hong Kong stocks took the lead in response, followed by A-shares. However, the recent sharp rebound of BDI in Hong Kong stock market did not change, but due to the theme of free trade zone which led to a small rebound of A-share shipping plate. This fully shows that the overseas market is not very optimistic about the shipping sector investment opportunities brought by the BDI rebound, but is more sensitive to policy. In our opinion, the current policy environment of the shipping industry is extremely bad. If the shipping relief policy is based on shipbuilding, it will bring significant strategic risks to China's ocean transportation.


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